Why the profession is splitting, and why we must go back to move forward.
The product discipline is undergoing a structural shift. Not a trend, not a hype cycle, but a fundamental reconfiguration of what product work is. The forces driving this shift are straightforward: automation, convergence, and the collapse of traditional differentiators. The result is a profession that is simultaneously becoming easier and harder, depending on which side of the divide you operate on.
Want to remain relevant over the next decade?
The Convergence Problem: Digital Products Are Becoming Indistinguishable
Most digital products have become indistinguishable. They share the same:
- onboarding flows
- UI patterns
- pricing models
- feature sets
- acquisition tactics
This is the outcome of:
- design systems
- AI‑assisted prototyping
- shared mental models
- competitive copying
- commoditised infrastructure
When every product looks and behaves the same, differentiation through interface, speed, or feature novelty becomes impossible. If your product can be cloned in a weekend, it isn’t a product — it’s a template.
Convergence is eroding the traditional value of product execution.
AI Has Removed the Illusion of Craft as Differentiation
AI has accelerated large parts of the product workflow:
- wireframes
- UX flows
- copy
- prototypes
- user stories
- competitive analysis
- research synthesis
The first draft of work that used to take weeks now takes hours. The barrier to entry has collapsed. The craft‑based moat is gone.
This doesn’t eliminate product roles, but it does eliminate the parts of the role that were never strategic to begin with.
Speed to Market Is No Longer a Moat
For the last decade, “move fast” was treated as a strategy. It isn’t anymore. When:
- development is cheap
- iteration is cheap
- cloning is trivial
- distribution is saturated
…speed stops being a differentiator. Everyone is fast. Everyone ships. Everyone iterates.
The only companies still using speed as a competitive advantage are the ones with nothing else to rely on.
Innovation Isn’t Dead — It’s Just Not Where People Think It Is
If speed and UI are dead, where does the value go?
Innovation hasn’t disappeared. It has shifted away from:
- UI
- features
- workflows
- surface‑level UX
These are now commodities.
The new innovation layers are:
- distribution
- ecosystem leverage
- data moats
- regulatory positioning
- monetisation architecture
- defensibility
- behavioural insight
- organisational capability
These are harder to copy and harder to automate. This is where modern product teams need to operate.
The Great Bifurcation: The Barbell Effect
The product profession isn’t evolving linearly; it is splitting. A “barbell” effect is emerging. On one end, you have low-cost execution. On the other, high-leverage strategy. In the middle is a thin, fragile bar that is rapidly snapping under the pressure.
The Left Weight: The Commodity Layer (Execution)
- Backlog grooming
- Ticket writing
- UI pattern replication
- Feature parity chases
- Basic UX flows
- AI‑generated prototypes
The Reality: This work is predictable, repeatable, and increasingly handled by AI or junior roles. It is necessary, but it no longer differentiates a product or a team.
Verdict: Low leverage, low defence.
The Thin Bar: The Vanishing Middle (The Danger Zone)
- Workflow optimisation
- Routine stakeholder management
- Basic user research synthesis
- Prioritisation under constraints
The Reality: This is where most PMs live today. It is the “safe” middle ground of coordination and context. But as AI moves up the stack and strategy becomes more demanding, this layer is being hollowed out. If you stay here, you face career stagnation, salary compression, or replacement by automated tools.
Verdict: Operational necessity, but zero career durability.
The Right Weight: The Strategic Layer (The Future)
- Market selection & Unit economics
- Distribution strategy
- Monetisation architecture
- Ecosystem leverage
- Data moats and defensibility
- Organisational design
- Long‑term product vision
The Reality: This layer cannot be automated because it requires synthesis across domains: economics, psychology, systems thinking, and organisational dynamics.
Verdict: The only layer that creates durable competitive advantage.
The Return to Fundamentals: What Users Are Actually Trying to Do
When everything converges, the only remaining differentiator is clarity:
- What is the user trying to achieve?
- What friction exists in their current workflow?
- What emotional, social, or economic job drives the task?
- How can the product remove that friction better than alternatives?
This is not nostalgia for “classic product thinking.” It’s a strategic necessity. When features, UI, and pricing are indistinguishable, the only competitive advantage is understanding the user’s job better than anyone else.
This is the part of product work that has been neglected for a decade in favour of shipping velocity and feature theatre.
It’s coming back.
